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☆ Hot inflation and high estimates could ruin the Q1 earnings season. Why investment chiefs are increasingly worried — and the bull case that profits are still underestimated.
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Without strong profit progress in the Q1 earnings season starting in mid-April, US stocks may surrender their 8.2% year-to-date gain. Loftier estimates, top-heavy earnings are reasons for worryFirms have a rather low bar to clear in the upcoming earnings season, as is often the case. The market's largest companies are disproportionately driving earnings growth in addition to stock returns, Goldman Sachs found. The Q1 earnings season begins in earnest on Friday as big banks share results. Early reporters have beaten earnings estimates by 13.5%, Golub wrote, which he added is more than double the typical rate.

Persons: Richard Saperstein, James Ragan, David Kostin, Goldman Sachs, Kostin, Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise, we're, Saglimbene, Arun Bharath, Bharath, Jonathan Golub, Golub, they're Organizations: Federal Reserve, Business, Treasury Partners, DA Davidson, Nvidia, Big Tech, Bel Air Investment Advisors, UBS, Institute for Supply Management Locations: America

☆ The bond market is where the action is right now, says Treasury Partners' Richard Saperstein
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe bond market is where the action is right now, says Treasury Partners' Richard SapersteinJoe Terranova, Bryn Talkington, Steve Weiss, and Richard Saperstein join 'Halftime Report' to discuss the bond market's reaction to the treasury refunding, fiscal stimulus working its way through the economy, and seasonality in the market.

Persons: Richard Saperstein Joe Terranova, Bryn Talkington, Steve Weiss, Richard Saperstein Organizations: Partners

☆ Watch CNBC's investment committee discuss treasury refunding
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's investment committee discuss treasury refundingJoe Terranova, Bryn Talkington, Steve Weiss, and Richard Saperstein join 'Halftime Report' to discuss the bond market's reaction to the treasury refunding, fiscal stimulus working its way through the economy, and seasonality in the market.

Persons: Joe Terranova, Bryn Talkington, Steve Weiss, Richard Saperstein Organizations: Watch

☆ Stock futures are little changed on Monday evening: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Stock futures were little changed on Monday night. Futures tied to the S&P 500 added 0.03%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.05%. During Monday's trading, the 30-stock Dow closed lower by 74.15 points, or 0.2%, while the S&P 500 inched higher by 0.01%. The S&P 500 alone lost nearly 5% in September. On the economic data front, investors will be watching the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August, due Tuesday morning.

Persons: Stocks, Richard Saperstein, Dow Jones Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, Treasury, Investors, Treasury Partners, Labor, Survey Locations: Washington

☆ September is the cruelest month for stocks. Pros share their trading tips — and what to buy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The pros share their expectations and tips for how investors can trade in the month ahead. The volatility isn't over The "potential bite" of aggressive Fed policy could lead to more volatility, said Richard Saperstein, chief investment officer at investment firm Treasury Partners, in a Tuesday note. Avoid tech — but not completely Avoid mega-cap tech stocks such as the "Magnificent Seven" now, the pros said, referring to Apple , Amazon , Alphabet , Meta , Microsoft , Nvidia and Tesla — tech stocks that have made massive gains this year. "Big tech stocks have run and valuations are richer than they have been. Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist at Morningstar, said on Thursday that not all tech stocks are overvalued.

Persons: Richard Saperstein, Ben Kirby, CNBC's, Carol Schleif, George Ball, Sanders Morris Harris, Schleif, Ball, it's, Dave Sekera, Kirby, Thornburg, Morgan Stanley, Andrew Slimmon Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Treasury Partners, Thornburg Investment Management, BMO Family Office, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Big Tech, Morningstar, Autodesk, Software, Teladoc, CNBC, CME, Hyatt Hotels, Hotels, Resorts, Hilton Hotels, Morgan, Morgan Stanley Investment, United Rentals Locations: U.S, China, Argentine

☆ US stocks rise as the Fed's favorite inflation gauge drops to 2-year low
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks rose higher on Friday as the Fed's favorite inflation gauge cooled to a two-year low. PCE inflation rose just 0.2% month-over-month in June, in line with economists' expectations. The Dow and S&P 500 are on track to close off their third straight winning week. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, rose just 0.2% in June, in-line with economists' estimates. Commentators point out that headline inflation remains well-above the Fed's 2% long-run target.

Persons: Richard Saperstein, Saperstein Organizations: Dow, Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal, Fed, Treasury Partners Locations: Wall, Silicon, decelerate

☆ Hedge the slowdown in equities with investments in bonds, says Treasury Partners' Richard Saperstein
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHedge the slowdown in equities with investments in bonds, says Treasury Partners' Richard SapersteinJosh Brown, Jenny Harrington and Richard Saperstein join 'Halftime Report' to discuss trends in commercial real estate, projections for a slowdown in the back half of the year, and finding opportunities in the bond market.

Persons: Richard Saperstein Josh Brown, Jenny Harrington, Richard Saperstein Organizations: Partners

☆ Watch CNBC's investment committee discuss opportunities in bonds
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's investment committee discuss opportunities in bondsJosh Brown, Jenny Harrington and Richard Saperstein join 'Halftime Report' to discuss trends in commercial real estate, projections for a slowdown in the back half of the year, and finding opportunities in the bond market.

Persons: Josh Brown, Jenny Harrington, Richard Saperstein Organizations: Watch

☆ Treasury Partners' Saperstein makes bearish case for the market, the fundamentals are deteriorating
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTreasury Partners' Saperstein makes bearish case for the market, the fundamentals are deterioratingRichard Saperstein, Treasury Partners chief investment officer, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss conflicting signals in the market and his playbook in the market.

☆ Treasury yields climb to begin second quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was up by around 4 basis points to 3.5318%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond added just over 2 basis points to 3.7092%. The yield on the 2-year note rose by more than 7 basis points to 4.1351%. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Monday morning as the bond market emerged from a wild first quarter. "Investors should follow the markets, not the Federal Reserve for clues on when the central bank's rate hikes will end," said Richard Saperstein, chief investment officer at New York-based Treasury Partners. Auctions will be held Monday for $57 billion of 13-week Treasury bills and $48 billion of 26-week bills.

☆ Watch CNBC's full midday market discussion with the 'Halftime Report' investment committee
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full midday market discussion with the 'Halftime Report' investment committeeJosh Brown, Steve Weiss, Brenda Vingiello, Jim Lebenthal and Richard Saperstein join the CNBC 'Halftime Report' to discuss trading the banking sector, the role of regional banks and portfolio exposure to tech.

☆ Regional banks play a very important role in this country, says Sand Hill Global's Brenda Vingiello
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRegional banks play a very important role in this country, says Sand Hill Global's Brenda VingielloJosh Brown, Steve Weiss, Brenda Vingiello, Jim Lebenthal and Richard Saperstein join the 'Halftime Report' to discuss trading the banking sector, the role of regional banks and portfolio exposure to tech.

☆ Markets will have a business cycle with lower EPS and weak stocks, says Treasury Partners' Richard Saperstein
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets will have a business cycle with lower EPS and weak stocks, says Treasury Partners' Richard SapersteinRichard Saperstein of Treasury Partners joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss his 2023 playbook.

☆ Watch the CNBC ‘Halftime Report’ investment committee weigh in on market sentiment heading into 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch the CNBC ‘Halftime Report’ investment committee weigh in on market sentiment heading into 2023CNBC’s ‘Halftime Report’ investment committee, Shannon Saccocia, Richard Saperstein, Liz Young and Jim Lebenthal, discuss stocks rebounding and trying to push for a small year-end rally.

☆ Don't have short-term memory on the market because of small rebounds, warns SoFi's Liz Young
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDon't have short-term memory on the market because of small rebounds, warns SoFi's Liz YoungCNBC’s ‘Halftime Report’ investment committee, Shannon Saccocia, Richard Saperstein, Liz Young and Jim Lebenthal, discuss stocks rebounding and trying to push for a small year-end rally.

☆ 5 charts show why now is a good time to invest in bonds while they look the most attractive relative to stocks in years
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

After years of offering low returns, bond yields are up as the Fed raises interest rates. Both UBS Asset Management and Bank of America have shared charts showing why bonds look attractive. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. If the economy slows meaningfully, inflation will likely cool, leading to falling interest rates and higher bond prices." Below are charts that Bank of America and UBS Asset Management shared to put bonds' current attractiveness into historical context.

☆ It's the bond market's time to shine
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Bond yields are at their highest levels in years. The result has been nothing but pain for stock and bond prices since the start of the year. Another reason is because in a recessionary environment, bond prices typically rise as investors pile into safe-haven assets like Treasurys. "Bond investors are facing a unique win-win scenario right now," Saperstein said in an October memo. He continued: "If inflation and rates continue to rise, bond prices will decline but unrealized price losses can be meaningfully offset by locked-in 4-6% income returns.

☆ Housing is on the verge of a correction and Americans are feeling less and less upbeat about the economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

And no wonder — the economy is giving Americans less and less reason for optimism. The US housing market isn't just slowing down, it's in the early stages of a major correction. According to the latest consumer confidence report, Americans are feeling downbeat across the board. In Franco's words: "The Expectations Index is still lingering below a reading of 80 — a level associated with recession — suggesting recession risks appear to be rising." Here are the latest market moves.

☆ Investing in bonds provides a 'unique win-win scenario right now,' according to a CIO managing $9 billion. He shares his strategy for locking in up to 6% in income — and which assets he likes most.
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

In a recession, investors seek safe-haven assets like high-quality bonds, and the increased demand for them lifts their prices. "Bond investors are facing a unique win-win scenario right now," Saperstein said in a memo on Monday. Bond yields are expected by many to continue rising in the months ahead as the Fed continues on its hawkish path. Saperstein's preferred area of the bond market is municipal bonds, which are issued by public entities like cities or states. We're starting to take advantage of this higher-rate environment by 'opting-in' and purchasing longer dated, high-grade municipal bonds within client portfolios," he said.

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